NFL 2013 – Week 2 Picks

Starting the year 0-5 ~(-10x) takes goddamn talent. Carolina, Atlanta, NY Giants, and Baltimore… plus a horrible teaser on top where I bet the over on Atlanta/New Orleans (45), which inevitably led to the moment where I had something like 8x floating on the Falcons to convert from first and goal for the game and all my bets… absolutely gruesome…

Can we please try to practice some restraint?

I get a small portion back betting the Chargers +6 and then the Pats v Jets UNDER. Going into the meat of week 2, I’m down about (-7x). But the sun rose today, a rookie NY QB threw 3 game-losing INTS, and I knew all was still right with the world.

WEEK 2 PICKS
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Detroit Lions (-1.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

What are the chances that Nick Fairley and Suh actually kill Carson Palmer this game? It’s no 0, right? Reggie Bush made the Detroit O even scarier than it already was… there’s a lot of buzz that the Lions might be a real team this year. We’ll see I guess.

Carolina Panthers (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS

The game last name showed us that New England is not the offensive team it’s been for the good part of last decade, making the Bill’s close lost vs them seem much less relevant. The Panthers defense is stout as they come and Cam Newton should out play EJ Manuel. If he doesn’t super inflate his fantasy numbers this week people might stop taking him seriously…

New Orleans (-3) over TAMPA BAY BUCS

I was looking forward to this game all week. Tampa Bay felt like they had so much value, playing at home against a divisional rival that’s over-rated by the public. This seemed like a game where 80% of the public would bet on the Saints, and the Bucs would upset them at home, where the Saints have historically struggled. I was waiting for the line to hit +3.5 Bucs to pull the trigger… Then things get weird. Stories come out. Josh Freeman was voted out as team captain. There was a player meeting BEFORE the season, to discuss if Head Coach Greg Schiano has orchestrated the coup. Freeman doesn’t show up for Team Photos. There are rumors of drug abuse. When the line hit (-3 105) I pulled the trigger.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2.5) over San Francisco 49ers

This is going to be the game of the week and my wager is more of an action bet/I hate Colin Kaepernick then anything else. I do think the Seattle is probably going to win at home… and when the line fell to 2.5, I paid the extra (-115)

LEANING MIAMI & JACKSONVILLE

Additional Week 10 Picks

Adding

Chicago (-.5) +100 2u

 

Week 10 Picks

Locked-in:

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) 2u (-115)
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 2u (-115)
New York Giants (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals 2u (-110) 
Detroit Lions (-1) @ Minnesota Vikings 1u (-120)
Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 1u (-110)
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints 2u (-115)
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears (-1) 3u (-110)

Leans:

Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders(+7.5)
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

NFL Week 10 – Preview of Games & Early Action

– Home Team Listed Second
– All spreads from 5dimes

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Thursday Night Game

Despite Indy’s action starting at (-125), meaning you have to risk $125 to win $100, the public is still overwhelmingly (88%) in their favor. This is a Vegas trap game, with it’s classic misdirection of limelight on the seemingly glowing Colts, who just earned their 3rd straight win,versus a (1-6) Jacksonville team on the tail-end of a 0-5 losing streak. In fact, Jacksonville is in the worst 5 teams statistically, both on offense and defense. So what’s the argument here? How can you justify any money on the Jaguars? The logic is rather simple: Vegas really, really wants you to be on the Colts. Vegas, historically, has made your bankroll her bitch. Vegas knows more than you do.

Play: Lean Jacksonville

Buffalo Bills (+10.5) @ New England Patriots – Sunday Morning Games

This is a tough one. The Bills played well against Houston last week, staying within a touchdown until the fourth quarter, despite a (-1) turnover gap. Double digit favorites are 6:4 this year against the spread, and the Bills are probably the best of the despicable dogs. However, let’s not forget this is New England they’re playing. The team that outscored them 45 to 14 in the second half of their week 4 match-up. The team that was throwing the ball up four touchdowns against the Rams. The Patriots are a bloodthirsty & soulless juggernaut on offense, and I don’t see value on either side of this game.

Play: PASS

NFL Week 9 – Review of Picks

– Year-To-Date: 13 – 8 – 1 (+11.6u), Last Week: 5 – 4 (+6.2u)
– All lines from 5Dimes.eu
– How To Read A Line & Glossary

Week 9 Round-up Review of Picks

San Diego Chargers/Kansas City Chiefs Under 41 (-110) x1  LOST
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns (-115) x2u WIN
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-7 1st Half) (-110) x2u LOST
Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-110) x1u  WIN
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins (-4) (-110) x2u LOST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders (-110) x2u WIN
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ New York Giants (-110) x5u WIN
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) (-110) x1u  WIN
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ New Orleans Saints (+100) x1.5u  LOST

D’oh!
– In hindsight it was stupid to think the Texans/Houston line shifted from -10.5 to -7 for the Texans, but that’s exactly what I thought. This little hiccup changed what would have been a great week into just a good week.

Joe Public Makes a Killing
– Normally, +6u (6% of my investment) is a cause of celebration but the confetti is held back this week seeing as how it was one of the Worst Days in Vegas History. The public who overwhelmingly sided with favorites this week (80%+ Chicago, Denver, Greenbay, Detroit, Houston, Baltimore) all cashed, along with Tampa who had much public love (80%+) as a minor dog. This was the week where 10 team parlays turned $50 into $10,000. It had been a good year for Vegas leading up until week 9, so my advice is not to read too much into it for now…

The Gig is Up on Tampa & Pitt
– The public finally caught on to two trends that I’ve been milking for while now. 1.) Tampa Bay has a potential Top-5 offense & 2.) The Pittsburgh Steelers are contenders. Don’t believe me? Despite being a game behind Baltimore in the AFC West, the Steelers are 14:1 to win the Superbowl while the Ravens are 25:1.

You Lack Discipline!
– I’m just getting my feet wet with this hobby of mine, but even I can see that I’m laying down too many wagers that don’t need to be made. The trend I’m seeing is that Over/Unders, while more reliable then teaser and parlays still belong in the realm of “higher risk” category compared with betting against the spread. See the Chargers/Chiefs game where the Chiefs gave up 21 points in 5 mins in the fourth quarter to ruin my Under 41 bet. I’ve been liberal with my “feeler” bets these past three weeks and it’s not time to rein things in a little now that I have a better feel for the league.