– Home Team Listed Second
– All spreads from 5dimes
Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Thursday Night Game
Despite Indy’s action starting at (-125), meaning you have to risk $125 to win $100, the public is still overwhelmingly (88%) in their favor. This is a Vegas trap game, with it’s classic misdirection of limelight on the seemingly glowing Colts, who just earned their 3rd straight win,versus a (1-6) Jacksonville team on the tail-end of a 0-5 losing streak. In fact, Jacksonville is in the worst 5 teams statistically, both on offense and defense. So what’s the argument here? How can you justify any money on the Jaguars? The logic is rather simple: Vegas really, really wants you to be on the Colts. Vegas, historically, has made your bankroll her bitch. Vegas knows more than you do.
Play: Lean Jacksonville
Buffalo Bills (+10.5) @ New England Patriots – Sunday Morning Games
This is a tough one. The Bills played well against Houston last week, staying within a touchdown until the fourth quarter, despite a (-1) turnover gap. Double digit favorites are 6:4 this year against the spread, and the Bills are probably the best of the despicable dogs. However, let’s not forget this is New England they’re playing. The team that outscored them 45 to 14 in the second half of their week 4 match-up. The team that was throwing the ball up four touchdowns against the Rams. The Patriots are a bloodthirsty & soulless juggernaut on offense, and I don’t see value on either side of this game.
Play: PASS
New York Giants (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Both of these teams are coming off a series of close games, with the Giants winning most of theirs and the Bengals losing all of theirs. This game is very similar to the Indy/Jacksonville game in terms of where the public stands, with 89% on the Giants. Why’s the line so close? Because Eli Manning historically reverts to a lemon 20% of the time, and the Bengals have a capable offensive line that should be able to handle the Giants pass rush. But Joe Public in me is hollering at this one. The Giants are 3:1 ATS on the road, while the Bengals are 1-2 ATS at home, and Andy Dalton has the same INT as TD last 5 games at 8 a piece. I think Vegas is giving the Bengals too much credit. A medium play is in order here before the line jumps.
Play: Giants (-4) -110 x2u
San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Incredible. Vegas has the Chargers as a 40:1 favorite to win the Superbowl and Tampa as a 135:1 favorite. Yes, the Chargers have a slightly easier schedule, but it’s clear which 4-4 team Vegas thinks is better in the long run. The pubic is divided 70:30 at this point in favor of the Bucs. All signs point to a pass, but two factors are grinding against my logic. 1.) Phillip Rivers is on the sharp decline, and the numbers are deceptive of just how much he’s fallen off. 2.) Tampa has looked phenomenal the past two weeks on offense, and the numbers haven’t caught up. I see a high-scoring shootout where the side that doesn’t have Norv Turner wins.
Play: Tampa Bay (-3) -110 x2u
Denver Broncos (-4) @ Carolina Panthers
As much as I love watching my man Peyton play, the phrase I would use to describe Denver would be: efficient but frail. The Panthers, despite being a horrific 2-6 ATS this year, and losing 6 games, have played them all tough and lost several close games due to a combination of bad coaching and QB decision making. The Broncos have been narrowly winning against the line for the past few weeks, and I think they are ripe for a disappointment, especially with 90% of the public thinking otherwise.
Play: Lean Carolina
Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Miami Dolphins
I don’t have a good grasp of either of these teams. I can easily see Dolphins covering and just as easily with a narrow win.
Play: PASS
Oakland Raiders (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
The public hasn’t adjusted to the fact that the team that almost won the 2012 AFC Championship has little in common with this year’s Ravens. The Ravens are still getting close to 80% of the public action, despite looking very shaky their past 3 weeks (including Bye). The Raiders on your other hand are a below average team with an above average offense. Carson Palmer is certainty experienced and capable, and I can see this being a close game down the stretch. I think the public is on a “favorites” binge after last week’s blowout of Vegas, and I think this is a game where it’s going to bite them. The Raiders are not the _____ (insert Chiefs, Cardinals, Titans)
Play: Lean Raiders
Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ New Orleans Saints
I put 2 units on the Falcons as soon as this line became available Tuesday at (-115), and it’s already at (-125). If you look at the history of the rivalry, you can assume this year will be another high scoring affair. However, the Atlanta Defense has dramatically improved while the Saints defense has dramatically worsened. The White/Julio WR combo has been on fire all year and there’s no reason it won’t continue against the worst defense in football. And even the inconsistent Michael Turner (who played well against Dallas) may have a 100 yard game against the Saint’s embarrassing run defense. Vegas has undervalued the Falcons all year, undermining the importance of a phenomenal passing offense in today’s game, and the Falcons are 6-2 ATS, 4-0 on the road. All of that is enough for me to take them despite their 80% public backing.
Play: Falcons (-1) -115 x2u
New York Jets (+6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – Sunday Afternoon Games
I don’t have a feel for this game, other than sensing the line is pretty spot-on.
Play: PASS
Dallas (-1) @ Philadelphia
Another Vegas trap, pushing the action onto Dallas. The Cowboys are not a good team this year, and the public hasn’t quite caught on to just how bad they are. Nevertheless, how can anyone put any more money on Vick ever again? There’s just something spooky about the Eagles patented 90+ yard turnover touchdowns, and I think Vick, Reid, and the Eagles are cursed. Some meta-physical chemistry is off, and they are a disaster to watch on the field. Nevertheless, did you know the Eagles were a 60% favorite to win the Saints game up until Vick threw that fateful INT that got returned 99 yards? On-the other hand, Michael Vick in the red zone this year reminds me of a fumbling teenage boy trying to get into their super-religious girlfriend’s pants, it just ain’t gonna happen buddy, there are higher powers at play here. Can you tell I’m divided?
Play: PASS
St. Louis Rams (+11) @ San Francisco 49ers
Double digit favorites are something like 6-4 ATS this year, and St. Louis is not quite as bad as the other teams granted the double-digit dishonorable distinction (I am not editing that, suck it). While I would love to fade the public in this game (70% on San Fan), the truth is the 49ers look deadly this year on both sides of the ball, and I do not have the testicular fortitude to take the bait.
Play: PASS
Houston Texans (+1) @ Chicago Bears
Fact: The Texans are the Vegas favorites to win the Superbowl (+525). Less-then-sure-fact: The Texans are top 5 on both sides of the ball this year, while Chicago’s stupendous defense has been held back by Smokin’ Jay Culter’s offense. The public is divided 56% Houston 44% Chicago, so the entire wager comes down to this: do you think the electrifying, once-in-a-lifetime Chicago defense, on their own turf, can shut down the super-efficient Texan’s workhorse? I think for this particular game, on this particular sunday night… yes they will.
Play: Chicago Bears (-1) -110 x3u
Wed Edit: Doh! I posted the play last night, and then wake up this morning to see this: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/11/07/tillman-may-not-play-sunday-if-wife-goes-into-labor/
Kansas City Chiefs (+12) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
My bet for least watched MNF game this year. This one is easy for me. I am not going to consider the Chiefs. I am not going to consider a double-digit favorite who isn’t New England either.
Play: PASS
The Moneyline 
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