NFL Week 9 – Review of Picks

– Year-To-Date: 13 – 8 – 1 (+11.6u), Last Week: 5 – 4 (+6.2u)
– All lines from 5Dimes.eu
– How To Read A Line & Glossary

Week 9 Round-up Review of Picks

San Diego Chargers/Kansas City Chiefs Under 41 (-110) x1  LOST
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns (-115) x2u WIN
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-7 1st Half) (-110) x2u LOST
Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-110) x1u  WIN
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins (-4) (-110) x2u LOST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders (-110) x2u WIN
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ New York Giants (-110) x5u WIN
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) (-110) x1u  WIN
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ New Orleans Saints (+100) x1.5u  LOST

D’oh!
– In hindsight it was stupid to think the Texans/Houston line shifted from -10.5 to -7 for the Texans, but that’s exactly what I thought. This little hiccup changed what would have been a great week into just a good week.

Joe Public Makes a Killing
– Normally, +6u (6% of my investment) is a cause of celebration but the confetti is held back this week seeing as how it was one of the Worst Days in Vegas History. The public who overwhelmingly sided with favorites this week (80%+ Chicago, Denver, Greenbay, Detroit, Houston, Baltimore) all cashed, along with Tampa who had much public love (80%+) as a minor dog. This was the week where 10 team parlays turned $50 into $10,000. It had been a good year for Vegas leading up until week 9, so my advice is not to read too much into it for now…

The Gig is Up on Tampa & Pitt
– The public finally caught on to two trends that I’ve been milking for while now. 1.) Tampa Bay has a potential Top-5 offense & 2.) The Pittsburgh Steelers are contenders. Don’t believe me? Despite being a game behind Baltimore in the AFC West, the Steelers are 14:1 to win the Superbowl while the Ravens are 25:1.

You Lack Discipline!
– I’m just getting my feet wet with this hobby of mine, but even I can see that I’m laying down too many wagers that don’t need to be made. The trend I’m seeing is that Over/Unders, while more reliable then teaser and parlays still belong in the realm of “higher risk” category compared with betting against the spread. See the Chargers/Chiefs game where the Chiefs gave up 21 points in 5 mins in the fourth quarter to ruin my Under 41 bet. I’ve been liberal with my “feeler” bets these past three weeks and it’s not time to rein things in a little now that I have a better feel for the league.